Right now it looks like rain for the Derby which will likely make a mess out of my models. This Derby is really interesting. Had Eskendereya been running it, he would have been the clear favorite. As it is, it looks wide open. So despite my love for Sidney's Candy, I think I may have to consider some other betting options.
I'm not going play by play like I did last year. Here's what I have as the probable odds (bold are horses where the models like better than the morning line):
99-1: Homeboykris, Make Music For Me
64-1: Paddy O'Prado
41-1: Dean's Kitten
35-1: Line of David
34-1: Ice Box
30-1: Stately Victor
29-1: Devil May Care
24-1: Awesome Act
18-1: Noble's Promise
17-1: Lookin at Lucky
16-1: Mission Impazible, Dublin
13-1: Discreetly Mine
12-1: American Lion
11-1: Jackson Bend
9-1: Super Saver, Conveyance
8-1: Sidney's Candy
I'm liking that the morning favorite, Lookin at Lucky, ranks ninth according to the models. Bodes well for me. I'm not one to question Bob Baffert (one of two bobbleheads I own is of him. The other is Torii Hunter) normally but you're really going to take the blinkers off your horse in a 20 horse field?
Super Saver looks like he could win because of lunatic Calvin Borel and the potential for rain. Definite upset potential there.
Dean's Kitten is a bit bizarre. Since when do the Ramsey's have a Derby contender not trained by Bob Baffert? And who thinks that a career turf horse is really going to take the Derby?
Update: I discovered a data error for Mission Impazible. The models have been rerun since this was first posted an hour and a half ago.